Professor Roger Hosein

Publication/source: Journal of Economic Studies, 1-14, 2026

Description / abstract: Purpose This paper assesses the trade impact of China and India’s (CHINDIA) expansion on the small island developing states (SIDS) of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). It assesses both CHINDIA’s competitive threat to CARICOM’s exports in third markets and the spillover trade opportunities for the region from CHINDIA’s rapid growth. Design/methodology/approach We employ a series of competition measures to estimate CHINDIA’s impact on CARICOM's exports in its largest export destination, the United States (US). We then estimate a gravity model to assess CARICOM’s bilateral trade opportunities with CHINDIA along with the explanatory power of the Linder hypothesis in Southern trade between large and small exports. Findings CHINDIA’s export threat to CARICOM in the US market is low due to a divergence in export specialization patterns. Our …

Publication/source: The International Trade Journal 40 (3), 303-325, 2026

Description / abstract: The literature suggests that small island developing states (SIDS) are at a disadvantage compared to their larger counterparts. While larger countries have pursued manufacturing for exports, SIDS have typically focused on commodities, financial services, or tourism. This study explores selected macroeconomic factors and their influence on export manufacturing in SIDS. Using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we find that GDP positively influences manufacturing exports in the Asia-Pacific region and that trade openness is important to resource-rich and Caribbean SIDS. We also find evidence supporting the presence of Dutch disease among the Caribbean and resource-rich SIDS.

Publication/source: The International Trade Journal, 1-25, 2026

Description / abstract: This article assessed the impact of the trade preference program, CBERA, on the SIDS of CARICOM and found that the PTA positively impacted the region’s exports to the US. Our econometric estimations coupled with a market segmentation technique identified that there is a negative relationship between the US GDP per capita and CARICOM’s exports to the country, which is more acute in the high- and medium-quality markets relative to the low-quality market. We argue that the expansion of the US energy industries along with the deindustrialization of some of CARICOM’s non-energy sectors are key factors in this negative relationship.

Publication/source: Critical perspectives on international business 22 (4), 530-572, 2026

Description / abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how the 2025 US tariff policy targeting its principal trading partners (China, Canada and Mexico) departs from modern pro-trade economic policy and adopts an unconventional conservative stance on neo-mercantilism. It evaluates how President Trump’s use of an indefinite period of protectionism to maintain trade hegemony departs from the philosophical underpinnings of List and Hamilton. Design/methodology/approach Rather than attempting to perform empirical estimations (which, given the frequent changes in messaging by the USA, would quickly become outdated), the authors engage in a diagrammatic theoretical approach to elucidate the likely trade implications over time. Findings The long-run expectation of the policy is a contraction of domestic and global consumer welfare. The authors argue that if …

Publication/source: Journal of Economic Studies 53 (6), 1172-1186, 2026

Description / abstract: Purpose This paper examines the concept of sustainability by revisiting the genuine savings (GS) metric and its relationship with the Dutch Disease to see if Dutch Disease not only compromises GDP growth in resource-rich countries but also compromises long-term sustainability. Design/methodology/approach Using data that spans a 100-country full sample as well as subsamples categorised as resource-rich and non-resource-rich over the 1990–2019 period, regression analysis was performed using pooled OLS and fixed effects estimation approaches. These findings are corroborated through a robustness check employing the generalized method of moments estimation technique. Findings We find evidence to support the hypotheses that Dutch Disease negatively impacts GS and both manufacturing and service sectors have a negative impact on weak …